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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still