A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
